DAN HODGES: The Rwanda plan is over. And if he’s not careful, Rishi’s time in No 10 will be next

The Government’s Rwanda scheme is dead. ‘We’re not going to get a single migrant on a plane to Kigali before the Election,’ a Minister admitted to me. ‘Rishi and James Cleverly [the new Home Secretary] are going through the motions, but everyone knows it’s not going to happen.’

The official line from No 10 is that new legislation to circumnavigate the Supreme Court’s ruling that the plan is unlawful – and kickstart the effort to turn back cross-Channel small boats – will be published ‘imminently’. Some Downing Street sources are even hopeful it can be rolled out in the coming week.

But within the Cabinet there is widespread acceptance there are simply too many legislative and legal hurdles to get the flagship policy operating effectively before polling day.

First, a new treaty with Rwanda needs to be negotiated. And the Rwandans are becoming increasingly tired of being used as a British political football.

‘They’re getting fed up,’ another Minister explained. ‘They’re thinking, ‘What’s the point in negotiating a new treaty when Keir Starmer’s going to be PM in a few months and just rip the whole thing up.’ ‘

The Government’s Rwanda scheme is dead. ‘We’re not going to get a single migrant on a plane to Kigali before the Election,’ a Minister admitted to me. ‘Rishi and James Cleverly [the new Home Secretary] are going through the motions, but everyone knows it’s not going to happen’ (stock image)

The official line from No 10 is that new legislation to circumnavigate the Supreme Court ‘s ruling that the plan is unlawful – and kickstart the effort to turn back cross-Channel small boats – will be published ‘imminently’. Some Downing Street sources are even hopeful it can be rolled out in the coming week

Even if a new agreement can be negotiated it would need parliamentary approval – and all opposition parties have pledged to vote against it.

At the same time, Tory discontent is building among both wings of the increasingly fractured tribe.

Last week, members of the liberal One Nation Group of Conservative MPs wrote to Sunak warning him not to erode legal protections for refugees. It is also widely believed that a number of Cabinet Ministers would resign if there was a move to disapply protections provided to migrants under the European Convention of Human Rights (ECHR).

But, equally, a large number of Tory backbenchers are demanding stringent new safeguards are written into the legislation to ensure it can’t be derailed again in the courts.

‘We want four things,’ a leading rebel told me. ‘The Human Rights Act, ECHR and all existing treaty obligations have to be cleared out of the way. Also, we need a way of ensuring individual cases can’t be the subject of endless legal challenges.’

Yet Sunak is not minded to build such sweeping changes to human rights protections into the Bill. Which means a damaging Tory schism is looming.

And again, even if the PM can guide his new legislation through Parliament, as soon as it is law it will be pounced on by an army of vengeful civil rights lawyers.

‘The new legislation will inevitably face a fresh legal challenge. Probably ending up back in the Supreme Court,’ one Minister conceded. ‘Then, even if that new legislation is accepted, we’d have to start getting people physically on to the planes. And every one will have a lawyer, and every one of those cases will again end up in the courts.’

‘They’re getting fed up,’ another Minister explained. ‘They’re thinking, ‘What’s the point in negotiating a new treaty when Keir Starmer ‘s going to be PM in a few months and just rip the whole thing up.’ ‘ (stock image)

Yet Sunak is not minded to build such sweeping changes to human rights protections into the Bill. Which means a damaging Tory schism is looming (stock image)

There is no way that legal labyrinth can be successfully navigated between now and polling day. And Rishi Sunak knows it.

When James Cleverly expressed his frustration at the way the Rwanda policy had come to be seen as a magic bullet for stopping the small boats, he triggered a backlash from Tory hardliners. But he was just saying publicly what is now privately acknowledged within Downing Street.

‘Rwanda should only have been one part of the solution,’ an adviser told me, ‘but we’ve become fixated with it. Some of our other policies are actually having an impact. That’s why small-boat arrivals are down by a third. But you wouldn’t know it because all anyone is talking about is how we haven’t made Rwanda work.’

That’s because Tory MPs are no longer interested in incremental improvements on illegal migration. The Government’s pledge was clear: ‘We will stop the boats.’ And the boats haven’t been stopped.

Which means Rishi Sunak’s premiership is now entering a very dangerous phase.

‘He just doesn’t get it. He’s too out of touch,’ one disillusioned Tory backbencher told me. ‘The whole focus should have been on the boats. There should have been an immediate plan if the Supreme Court ruled against us. But there wasn’t. There’s just been more dither, confusion and drift.’

Another backbencher warned: ‘There will be a leadership challenge in the New Year. I don’t know whether it will work, but the names will go in. People have had enough. The view among a significant number of colleagues is another leader can’t save the Election, but they can probably save a few seats.’

READ MORE: No wonder Boris was bamboozled – even the experts didn’t understand the Covid science, writes DAN HODGES

Even a month ago, talk of yet another Tory leadership challenge would have seemed fantastical, but Sunak has managed to steer his already waterlogged ship of state into the eye of a perfect storm.

Mounting anger on the Government’s inability to get to grips with migration – both legal and illegal – has fused with broader concerns about Sunak’s overall political performance.

The rethink on net zero, his conference speech and the Autumn Statement were talked up by aides as being at the heart of his strategy to turn the polls and transform his party’s fortunes. Yet that strategy has clearly failed.

On Wednesday, he endured his worst Prime Minister’s Questions hammering since becoming PM. And there was widespread bemusement over his cancellation of a meeting with the Greek Prime Minister in a perceived slight over the Elgin Marbles.

‘There’s a sense he’s losing control,’ one MP observed. ‘He was supposed to be the grown-up in the room, but he’s increasingly acting and looking like a stroppy teenager. Something’s going to give.’

Another major issue is that Tory MPs are watching with mounting panic the growing support for the Reform Party, and its Prince of the Jungle, Nigel Farage.

The successor party to Ukip is starting to break ten per cent in the polls, and Farage has let it be known that when he returns from munching camel penis in the Australian bush he intends to return to the political front line.

‘Facing Starmer was one thing, but the idea of Rishi taking on Nigel Farage is filling many of us with terror,’ one Tory MP for a Red Wall constituency told me.

One Minister set out the battleground. ‘You’ve got the Suella Braverman supporters, the Boris die-hards, the Truss fans, the abandoned Red Wallers, the God Squad, the every-man-for-himself brigade. They’re all gunning for Rishi. ‘It’s not really about Rwanda. They want payback. They don’t care how messy it gets. Their view is, ‘It’s all over anyway, so let’s go down in flames.’ ‘ (stock image)

‘He just doesn’t have the personality or charisma. We need someone who can go head-to-head with Farage and hold his own.’

And while some Tory MPs are looking at who could possibly save them at the General Election, others have given up, and have decided to get their revenge in early.

One Minister set out the battleground. ‘You’ve got the Suella Braverman supporters, the Boris die-hards, the Truss fans, the abandoned Red Wallers, the God Squad, the every-man-for-himself brigade. They’re all gunning for Rishi.

‘It’s not really about Rwanda. They want payback. They don’t care how messy it gets. Their view is, ‘It’s all over anyway, so let’s go down in flames.’ ‘

Most Tory MPs I speak to say they don’t believe the rebels have the votes needed to defeat Sunak in a confidence motion.

But they also concede that isn’t the strategy.

One said: ‘The sense is that Rishi hasn’t really got the stomach for a fight and he’s already thinking about his life in LA after Downing Street. So if they get enough letters of no confidence to force a challenge, he’ll simply walk away.’

The Rwanda scheme is dead. And if he cannot find an alternative, Rishi Sunak’s premiership may well be heading the same way.

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