Fantasy basketball tips and NBA betting picks for Monday

ESPN’s fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for November 14 are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.

What you need to know for Monday’s games

Los Angeles, We Have A Problem: The Clippers have struggled to win in convincing fashion this season and as if that is not reason enough to worry about them covering the number tonight, here’s another: home underdogs of more than five points have returned a +17.1 unit profit when bet on the moneyline this season. These two teams have already played twice and yes, the Clips won both meetings, but the Rockets did have a second half lead in both contests.

Rating The Raptors: Toronto will be without three regulars tonight and are still significant favorites in Detroit against the Cade Cunningham-less Pistons. It may be tough to feel good about the Raptors, but keep in mind that, since the beginning of last season, they are 11-4 ATS when being favored on the road. The missing players is significant, but sportsbooks have consistently underrated Canada’s finest when playing in the United States.

Points Aplenty: This Hornets vs. Magic game is priced based on season-long data and that could give us a buying opportunity. The total is currently in the low 220’s which, on its surface, looks appropriate (these teams combine to average 119.1 points per game). But … the Hornets saw their pace increase and defensive efficiency decrease in LaMelo Ball’s return to action while the Magic could be getting Paolo Banchero (ankle) back. The Ball stats make sense given how he plays and For Orlando, they are seeing an average of 248.3 points scored in November when their rookie suits up. This total likely rises if Banchero is cleared and given that the Magic didn’t play this weekend and are off again tomorrow, it seems reasonable to think he could give it a go.

​​Bol Position: ​​The Orlando Magic have experimented with leaning into long lineups, starting multiple centers and forwards as their backcourt has been depleted by injuries. The key beneficiary of these creative looks has been Bol Bol, a two-way marvel who has swatted roughly eight percent of opponents’ two-point attempts while he’s on the floor. If this sounds absurd it’s because it is, as Bol leads the NBA in block percentage while also becoming a proficient rebounder now that he’s regularly seeing minutes. Rostered in just 39% of ESPN leagues heading into tonight’s matchup with the Hornets, Bol might be one of the most underrated players in all of fantasy hoops at the moment.

​​Stream Team: Monday’s seven-game slate leaves some room for fantasy rosters to consider some early-week streaming candidates. For instance, with Pascal Siakam sidelined for the Raptors tonight, Chris Boucher (53% available) has posted 39 points across his last two games and could help with a few blocks. The Bucks will be without Jrue Holiday once again due to an ankle injury for tonight’s game against the Hawks, vaulting Jevon Carter (93%) into an important offensive role as the team’s lead distributor. Reggie Jackson (85%), meanwhile, could fill a similarly rewarding role for the Clippers with both John Wall and Kawhi Leonard ruled out for tonight’s game against Houston.

​​Betting Bojan: With the Pistons so depleted, Bojan Bogdanovic is primed for a big line. The veteran forward has averaged 26.5 points the past two games and will be asked to help carry the offense without Cunningham and others in the rotations. Most notably, Bogdanovic is a free agent in roughly 40% of leagues while also a strong DFS value ($5,600 on DraftKings).

Game of the Night

Atlanta Hawks at Milwaukee Bucks
8 p.m. ET, Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Line: Bucks (-4)
Money line: Bucks (-178), Hawks (+150)
Total: 226 points
BPI Projected Total: 228.5 points
BPI Win%: Hawks (51.7%)

Probable: Grayson Allen, Giannis Antetokounmpo
Ruled Out: Bogdan Bogdanovic (knee)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

Fantasy streamer: Jevon Carter (available in 90.5% of leagues) is likely to get another start tonight, with Jrue Holiday out. He’s had back-to-back monster games (28.5 PPG, 9.0 APG, 5.0 3PG), but temper expectations with Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee) listed as probable to return after having missed the last two games. Khris Middleton is also listed as a game time decision, and would obviously slot in as the second option on the Bucks (even in limited minutes) whenever he’s able to return. So, Carter is unlikely to get nearly the usage that he’s gotten. Nevertheless, he’s playing well and has the potential to turn in another fantasy starter-worthy performance on Monday. — Snellings

Best bet: Trae Young over 26.5 points. Young has historically torched this iteration of Bucks. Last season, in three games he averaged 33.0 PPG (53.4 FG%), 10.7 APG and 4.3 3PG, and in the game he was able to play against them this season he popped for 42 points (46.9 FG%), 5 assists and 5 3-pointers. With Jrue Holiday out, Young should get even better looks than usual against the Bucks. — Snellings

Breaking down the rest of the slate

Toronto Raptors at Detroit Pistons
7 p.m. ET, Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, Michigan

Line: Raptors (-5)
Money line: Raptors (-210), Pistons (+175)
Total: 221 points
BPI Projected Total: 220 points
BPI Win%: Raptors (63.7%)

Questionable: Cory Joseph (hip)
Ruled Out: Cade Cunningham (shin), Gary Trent Jr. (hip), Fred VanVleet
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

Fantasy streamer: Otto Porter Jr. (available in 98.5% of leagues) got a spot start on Saturday due to all the Raptors injuries, and could get another one on Monday. He’s played 23 or more minutes in two of the last three games, his only such outings of the season, and in those two games averaged 10.0 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 1.5 APG, 1.5 SPG and 1.0 3PG in 25.0 MPG. Porter’s production potential is more all-around than volume, but if he’s getting starter minutes then he’s worth a look, particularly in category leagues. — Snellings

Best bet: Bojan Bogdanovic over 18.5 points. With Cade Cunningham (shin) out for the past two games, the Pistons’ offense has run through Bogdanovic. He has responded by averaging 26.5 PPG in those two games, against the Celtics and Knicks. Bogdanovic had a five-game stretch earlier this season in which he averaged 24.8 PPG and scored at least 21 points in every game, so he’s shown he can carry the scoring load for extended stretches, and he’ll likely be asked to do that again on Monday. — Snellings

Charlotte Hornets at Orlando Magic
7 p.m ET, Amway Center, Orlando, Florida

Line: Magic (-1)
Money line: Magic (-120), Hornets (+100)
Total: 224 points
BPI Projected Total: 228.8 points
BPI Win%: Hornets (57.6%)

Doubtful: Dennis Smith Jr. (ankle)
Questionable: Paolo Banchero (ankle)
Ruled Out: Gordon Hayward (shoulder)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

Best bet: Hornets +1.0 LaMelo Ball made his season debut on Saturday night against the Heat. He finished with 15 points, six rebounds and six assists. The Magic are middle of the road team defensively, ranking 15th in points allowed per 100 possessions. So far this season the Hornets have averaged only 108.7 PPG. However, Charlotte is 4-1 ATS in games where they score more than 112.4 points. I believe they can surpass that number with Ball back on the court — Eric Moody

Phoenix Suns at Miami Heat
7:30 p.m. ET, FTX Arena, Miami, Florida

Line: Heat (-2)
Money line: Heat (-130), Suns (+110)
Total: 215 points
BPI Projected Total: 221.4 points
BPI Win%: Heat (56.5%)

Questionable: Tyler Herro (ankle), Dewayne Dedmon (foot), Chris Paul (heel)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

Fantasy streamer: Cameron Payne (available in 89.8% of leagues) would make an excellent streamer, if Chris Paul (heel) sits again. Payne has started the last two games in Paul’s place, averaging 22.5 PPG, 6.0 APG, 4.5 3PG, 4.5 RPG and 1.0 SPG in 35.0 MPG. Paul returned to practice on Sunday, but wasn’t sure if he’d be able to play on Monday. Stay tuned on Paul’s status, before streaming Payne. — Snellings

Best bet: Suns +2.0 The Suns rank in the top five in points scored per 100 possessions and points allowed per 100 possessions while the Heat are 0-6 ATS over the past six games against teams with a winning record and 1-8 ATS after victories. — Moody

LA Clippers at Houston Rockets
8 p.m. ET, Toyota Center, Houston, Texas

Line: Clippers (-5.5)
Money line: Clippers (-225), Rockets (+185)
Total: 219.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 228.7 points
BPI Win%: Clippers (61.5%)

Questionable: Jalen Green (shoulder)
Ruled Out: John Wall (knee), Kawhi Leonard (knee)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

Fantasy streamer: Terance Mann (available in 96.3% of leagues) and Reggie Jackson (available in 84.3% of leagues) could both be in for noteworthy efforts on Monday. John Wall is sitting out the first half of a back-to-back for load management. The last time Wall sat, on November 7th against the Cavs, Mann started and popped for 16 points, 5 assists, 4 rebounds, 2 steals and a 3-pointer in 30 minutes while Jackson also shined with 18 points, 7 assists, 2 rebounds and 2 3-pointers in 36 minutes. — Snellings

Best bet: Paul George over 37.5 points + assists + rebounds. Since John Wall and Kawhi Leonard have already been ruled out, the Clippers will continue to rely heavily on George. He has faced the Rockets twice so far this season and averaged 31.5 PPG, 6.5 APG and 6.5 RPG. The Rockets rank 29th in points allowed per 100 possessions. — Moody

San Antonio Spurs at Golden State Warriors
10 p.m. ET, Chase Center, San Francisco, California

Line: Warriors (-7.5)
Money line: Warriors (-320), Spurs (+250)
Total: 233 points
BPI Projected Total: 236.2 points
BPI Win%: Warriors (75.9%)

Best bet: Spurs +7.5. The Spurs have enough talent to keep this game close. Despite not scoring a lot of points, San Antonio shoots the ball very well with an effective field goal percentage of 55.1%, sixth highest in the league. The Warriors have struggled on defense this season, ranking 24th in points allowed per 100 possessions. The Spurs are 9-3 ATS in their Past 12 games on the road. — Moody

Oklahoma City Thunder at Boston Celtics
7:30 p.m. ET, TD Garden, Boston, Massachusetts

Line: Celtics (-12)
Money line: Celtics (-650), Thunder (+460)
Total: 228.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 225.6 points
BPI Win%: Celtics (90.7%)

Questionable: Darius Bazley, Tre Mann (back)
Ruled Out: Malcolm Brogdon
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

Best bet: Thunder +12. The Thunder have only lost two games by 12 or more points this entire season, and the Celtics have only won four of their 13 games by that margin. The Thunder are a scrappy, competitive team with a positive scoring margin on the season. They are on the second half of a back-to-back, but they effectively blew the Knicks out in New York on Sunday so their players have a decent chance to be energized again on Monday. — Snellings

Analytics edge

BPI highest projected totals

1. Godlen State Warriors (122.1 points)
2. Boston Celtics (120 points)
3. LA Clippers (116 points)

BPI lowest projected totals

1. Oklahoma City Thunder (105.6 points)
2. Detroit Pistons (109.8 points)
3. Phoenix Suns (109.8 points)

BPI top probability to win (straight up)

1. Boston Celtics (90.7%)
2. Golden State Warriors (75.9%)
3. Toronto Raptors (63.7%)

Source: Read Full Article