Mighty Israel was caught napping amid political squabbles: Crisis Research Institute chief MARK ALMOND explores the staggering failure of intelligence services to detect any signs of Hamas’ deadly attack
Israel has spent the past few days commemorating the 50th anniversary of the surprise Arab assault on Yom Kippur – the holiest day in Judaism.
Newspaper editorials and documentaries have lamented the failure of then-Prime Minister Golda Meir to prevent the attack by Egypt and Syria, and the war that ensued.
At the same time, the Islamic Hamas group was preparing to mark the anniversary with a huge onslaught of missiles.
Such context makes the failure of Israeli intelligence services to detect any signs of this attack utterly staggering.
For years, Israel’s intense electronic surveillance of the Gaza Strip and use of Palestinian agents has been a byword for national defence. Indeed, over the past few weeks, Israeli security forces have been raiding small groups of terrorists in the Palestinian West Bank – and Israel seemed secure against any serious threats on its borders.
A man runs in the road as fires burn in Ashkelon, Israel, following rocket attacks from the Gaza Strip initiated by Islamic militant group Hamas
The failure of Israeli intelligence services to detect any signs of this attack utterly staggering. Pictured: Hamas fighters crossing border using paragliders
Palestinians celebrate by a destroyed Israeli tank at the Gaza Strip fence on Saturday afternoon
A building in Tel Aviv is damaged by a rocket fired by Palestinian militants from the Gaza Strip on October 7
So how could its intelligence system have missed such an enormous threat from Hamas? Perhaps Israel, like much of the outside world, had become complacent about the possibility of the Middle East ‘powder keg’ exploding.
READ MORE: Who are Hamas? Everything you need to know about the Palestinian terror movement that has launched war on Israel
Israelis barely noticed the increasingly aggressive rhetoric of Hamas in recent days, which was undoubtedly geeing up its supporters for something big.
Israel was also preoccupied with its internal political crisis.
Embattled by corruption allegations, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Right-wing coalition has faced mass protests against its controversial reforms to the courts.
Even members of the Israel Defence Forces and intelligence services were busy taking sides in this political divide. Hamas presumably thought it could exploit this to puncture Israel’s burgeoning relationship with pro-Western Arab regimes, which it so despises.
Israel, once completely rejected by the Arab world when the country was founded in 1948, made a breakthrough to widespread recognition by Arab states in 2019.
Donald Trump even drew the Gulf Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco to join Egypt and Jordan into opening trade and tourism links as well as diplomatic relations with Israel.
This left the militant Palestinians in Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza increasingly isolated in their belief that Israel has no right to exist.
Palestinians ride on an Israeli military vehicle taken by an army base overrun by Hamas militants near the Gaza Strip fence
A member of the Israeli security forces stands along a debris-strewn street in Tel Aviv
Israelis barely noticed the increasingly aggressive rhetoric of Hamas in recent days, which was undoubtedly geeing up its supporters for something big. Israel was also preoccupied with its internal political crisis
Hamas presumably thought it could exploit this to puncture Israel’s burgeoning relationship with pro-Western Arab regimes, which it so despises
Palestinian militants brandish weapons as they pass through Israeli territory on trucks
A rescue worker from the Magen David Adom disaster relief service looks on as cars burn at the site of a rocket attack in Ashkelon, southern Israel
Journalists take cover behind cars as Israeli soldiers take position during clashes with Palestinian fighters near the Gevim Kibbutz
Shocking footage shared on social media appears to show Palestinian fighters parading the naked body of an Israeli woman on the back of a pick-up truck
Footage appeared to show hostages being taken by Hamas militants into Gaza earlier today
Their only allies were Iran – Israel’s mortal enemy – and its regional clients, the Assad regime in Syria and the militant Hezbollah group controlling southern Lebanon.
It is the involvement of Iran that could turn this bloody assault into a devastating war. For the worst threat to Israel’s security, even its existence, comes from Hezbollah, which has obtained sophisticated equipment through Iran’s Syrian ally in Lebanon.
Iran, too, has a serious military industry. Its drones have been used by Putin in Ukraine, stoking Israel’s fears that Iran’s ayatollahs are bent on developing a nuclear warhead to tip its missiles.
If Hamas’s comparatively low-tech arsenal has been able to cause such devastation in 24 hours, the prospect of Hezbollah lending support with its missile arsenal is a sinister prospect. So what next?
Although the immediate effect of Hamas’s rocket attacks will be for Israelis to unite against a common enemy, it is not clear how long Netanyahu will benefit from the rally to defend their country.
Recriminations are inevitable. People will ask the glaring question: how did Israel’s super-hawk leader and his hardline cabinet fail to anticipate the anniversary of the Yom Kippur War might pose an opportune moment for Hamas?
Israel has launched a fightback. Pictured: A ball of fire and smoke rise from an explosion on a Palestinian apartment tower following an Israeli air strike in Gaza City
A tower block in Gaza City is hit by an Israeli airstrike after Palestinian militants struck Israel
Israeli forces have mounted strikes against targets in Gaza City following attacks today
After all, Netanyahu’s political trump card has always been that he will guarantee Israel’s security. While some may argue political instability in Israel will eventually be solved democratically, a chink in its armour has been irrevocably exposed. With the radicalisation of its Arab neighbours soaring, this could be much more dangerous.
There have been terrorist attacks and protests in Egypt. Even in rich Gulf States, which are said to be warming to Israel, polls suggest strong anti-Israeli views are the norm especially for under-30s – more than half their populations.
Unlike the 1973 war, which was started by armies, anything we see in the coming days and months will be a chaotic war between people.
If others are incentivised to join, it will be bloodier than anything seen yet. This is the ultimate aim of Palestinians. Cynical forces, not least Iran, will stoke the flames to achieve their common goal.
In the long term, the Islamic Republic wants to obliterate Israel from the map. In the short term, it wants to destabilise Gulf monarchs if they don’t cut ties with Israel.
We will all feel the pain. Remember, the biggest global result of the 1973 war was a spike in oil prices. If instability radiates across the Middle East, energy costs will go through the roof. That will not only help oil-rich Iran, and its ally Russia, but push the West into recession. Bloodshed may be confined now to Israel and Gaza, but all the Middle East and, indeed, the world, will feel the shockwaves.
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