Starmer set for Rutherglen by-election victory, predicts leading UK poll expert
- Humza under pressure as Labour set for victory
Humza Yousaf will find it difficult to hold Rutherglen and Hamilton West, a leading polling expert said last night, with Labour on course to snatch the key seat from the SNP.
Professor Sir John Curtice, the president of the British Polling Council, said Sir Keir Starmer’s party was well placed to claim victory in Thursday’s by-election.
Speaking to The Mail on Sunday, Sir John pointed out that Labour only needed a small swing from the SNP to win the contest.
But he said Sir Keir would likely be targeting a 10 per cent swing, which would be double what the SNP achieved when they took back the Westminster seat from Labour in 2019.
He added: ‘The brutal politics of this is very simple. Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour won that seat in 2017.
Humza Yousaf on the campaign trail in Rutherglen
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer, right and Leader of the Scottish Labour Party Anas Sarwar, left, take part in a campaign event in Hamilton, Scotland
If Sir Keir cannot win it back now there will be serious questions asked.
‘It shouldn’t be a question of if Labour wins in Rutherglen and Hamilton West, but how well does Labour win.’ The bellwether constituency has flip-flopped between the SNP and Labour for years.
On a tide of support for Mr Corbyn, Gerard Killen took the seat off the SNP’s Margaret Ferrier in 2017, with a majority of 265 votes.
However, it was regained by Ms Ferrier in 2019. She won by 5,230 votes thanks to a 5 per cent swing from Labour after Mr Corbyn’s popularity with voters crashed.
Thursday’s by-election was called after constituents ousted Ms Ferrier in a recall petition following the MP’s Covid rule-breaking.
In mid-September, Scotland-wide polling from YouGov put Labour on 27 per cent, down five percentage points, compared to the SNP’s 38 per cent, up two percentage points.
However, the latest constituency survey by UK Polling Report predicts that Labour is on track to win the by-election by a margin of 2.3 per cent.
For Mr Yousaf, who took over as SNP leader in March with his party engulfed in crisis amid a police investigation into its finances, internal feuds and plummeting poll numbers, the vote is a crucial first electoral test.
On the campaign trail yesterday he said he remained ‘hopeful’.
While the First Minister has previously insisted that if the SNP loses the by-election ‘the buck stops with me’, he declined to speculate on his position in the event of a Labour victory.
Mr Yousaf said: ‘I don’t hypothecate on loss, I’m hopeful going into this last few days of campaigning.
‘Labour have taken this vote for granted, they’ve already decided they’ve won this by-election. My experience on the doorstep tells me we have plenty of support.
‘It’ll come down to on the day making sure that support comes out.’
Recent survey results show growing numbers of Scots believe Mr Yousaf’s government to be ‘incompetent’ – with 44 per cent backing that view, up by one from August’s Redfield and Wilton poll.
Support for separation among the 1,100 Scots quizzed between September 2 and September 6 also fell.
The proportion backing ‘Yes’ was down by one point to 44 per cent, while those who said they would vote ‘No’ increased by one percentage point to 49 per cent.
Despite the SNP’s financial troubles, Nationalist campaign chiefs have been so desperate to claw back political credibility they have been paying people to deliver leaflets and whipping their MSPs to head to the constituency to knock on doors.
However, bookmakers have made Labour candidate Michael Shanks the odds-on favourite to see off the SNP’s Katy Loudon.
On a visit to the seat on Friday, Sir Keir struck a confident tone, telling supporters: ‘This will be a milestone if we win this election on the hard road back for Labour to power.’
Although victory would be seen as pivotal if the party is to stage a revival in Scotland, particular credence has been given to the idea that if Labour snatches the seat, it would herald the return of the party to power at the next General Election for the first time since 2010.
Margaret Ferrier triggered a by-election with a successful petition to remove her as MP due to violation of COVID-19 regulations in September 2020
But Sir John, a professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, warned against such a narrative, saying that Labour gains in Scotland would be irrelevant in a UK-wide context if Sir Keir’s party maintained its huge nationwide poll lead over the Tories.
Last night an SNP spokesman said: ‘Our candidate Katy Loudon is a strong local voice but we will be taking no votes for granted in this election.
The Labour Party has shown time and time again that it offers no real alternative to the Tories and their reckless pursuit of austerity. They do not have the ambition to deliver real change.’
Scottish Labour deputy leader Dame Jackie Baillie said: ‘While Labour is out speaking to voters in this area about the issues that matter – tackling the cost of living crisis and the epidemic of one in seven Scots on waiting lists – Katy Loudon is shamefully siding with her party bosses on income tax rises and congestion charges.
‘Only Michael Shanks will stand up for the people of the area and deliver the fresh start Rutherglen and Hamilton West deserves.’ Other candidates standing include Thomas Kerr (Scottish Conservatives), Gloria Adebo (Scottish Lib Dems) and Cameron Eadie (Scottish Greens).
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